The Scottish Referendum

A silly idea I had: reversing the EU and Russia, with Scotland as Crimea/Novorossiya. I decided to throw in a bit of a USA/China switch, but it's not really that big of one.

The PoD is FDR being assassinated in 1933, leading to political instability on top of the Great Depression and leading to civil war primarily between communists and the government. Rather than that leading to an Axis victory, it leads to an Allied victory without the Americans. In a bit of a secondary PoD, the Long March in China fails, leading to a more united KMT that is more capable of repelling the Japanese. After the war, the American communists triumph. The Cold War follows, with the UK and China leading the anti-communist side, and the Soviets and Americans as partners in the communist side. There is a Soviet-American split in the 1970s, and the Soviet Union itself falls apart in the 1990s. This paves the way for European integration, which was initially promoted by Britain to repel the Soviets, but eventually becomes a French and then a German project that the British reject. While the British are part of the EU, British reject European federalization in 2014, leading to the EU invading Scotland on the basis that they wanted to be part of the EF. The Russian-backed United Kingdom has gone to war against the Scottish separatists. 

Other notes: 

• The People's States of America is communist in name only these days. 
• Ulster is the result of a far more violent Troubles that continues on into the 21st century. It's a relatively new creation and is suspected of being backed by the EF in order to weaken Britain. 
• The Eurasian Union was intended to be a non-communist replacement for the USSR, but has turned into an economic, customs, free trade and free travel zone. 
• Quebec is just as bad as you think it is. 
• The Islamic Republic of Egypt is a Sunni theocracy founded after the overthrow of the Arab nationalist government under Sadat. Once a pariah, it has become a European ally. 
• India and Brazil are much like they are IOTL.