TL-191: Yankee Spring

This the full version of my original TL-191 Yankee Spring concept, which arose from this thread on the occupation of the South in TL-191. Because of the nature of this project, I'm going to be departing from my normal "objective observer" tone and instead talk about this work as the author with an idea. I welcome commentary and criticism, since I am slaying what seems to be a sacred cow of the alternate history community. But please, keep the discussion civil, and try to avoid OTL politics. I'm making a case about the political development of a fictional nation-state in a fictional story. If you want to skip my thoughts on why I think integration of the former CSA will fail, scroll down. 

RANT 

It is generally accepted wisdom that the United States, in the aftermath of the Second Great War in TL-191, would eventually integrate the former Confederate States as full states, instead of spinning it off as a puppet state. I've always had my objections to this idea. While I certainly agree that this is the policy the TL-191 United States would pursue, I never believed that it would be particularly successful, and that assumptions about its success are informed by OTL biases. Namely, that the Confederacy in TL-191 is not a "legitimate" nation, and they're all just Americans who are racist and have a silly flag. Given the historical context of TL-191, I disagree, and I think that the American occupation would eventually fail. This scenario features the worst possible failure, informed by Turtledove-style parallelism. 

I think that most people in the alternate history community assume that the Americans will successfully integrate the Confederacy because (1) this is what happened IOTL and (2) the Freedom Party would have destroyed any legitimacy to a Confederate national identity. I disagree on both counts. On the first count, I think that the OTL actually proves the massive differences between North and South, and that Reconstruction was never successful. I'm not going to belabor the point, but there are still many Southerners who are proud of their Confederate heritage, Jim Crow was around for a century after the Civil War, and so on. The Confederacy existed for four years, was recognized by no foreign state, and yet it still managed to engender a national identity that persists to this day. Consider the Confederacy in TL-191, which has existed for well over eight decades, reaffirmed its independence during the Second Mexican War, and was a major power in a global political alliance in two world wars. All the while, the Confederacy was poised as a rival of the United States. There is no denying that, in TL-191, the Confederates have formed a distinct national from the Americans of the United States. The Americans in TL-191 will try to suppress this, but it would only engender resentment among the Confederates, who would only be more ardent in asserting their national identity. All of this would extend the occupation, making the Americans look like conquering tyrants in the eyes of the Confederates, the rest of the world, and to the American people themselves. 

As for the Freedom Party delegitimizing the Confederate States as an independent state, I very much doubt this. Many people IOTL divorce slavery from the Confederacy, and regardless of that position's legitimacy, it is a phenomenon that occurs. In TL-191, any Southern independence movement would wash its hands of the Freedom Party, both because it would be a legal necessity and in order to actually gain sympathy from the world. The Southerners would argue that the existence of their nation cannot be denied simply because of the actions of a maniacal tyrant and his fan club. I also think that some OTL bias comes in here: when people IOTL think of the Confederacy, they think of slavery, and when they think of the TL-191 Confederacy, they think of the Freedom Party. They don't consider that if a nation-state exists for over eight decades, it will produce a lot of other bases for its national identity, many of them positive. These are the things that a Southern independence would cling on to. What we will see is the rise of non-violent resistance against the American occupation. The Americans cannot respond with violence without destroying their own free press, because the optics of peaceful demonstrators getting run over by barrels are terrible. So, either the Americans crack down, or they leave. 

There is another argument: the population argument. The argument goes that since the United States has a larger population than the Confederacy and Canada, that they could just flood the place with settlers. This doesn't work, unless there is a similar program to forcibly remove the locals. First of all, while there would be Americans who see the war torn Confederacy as an opportunity, most will want to avoid such a destitute place. The government will have to encourage migration. This only feeds into the narrative that the Americans are tyrannical conquerors, out to destroy a once-independent nation. These "carpetbaggers" would be treated with hostility and resentment, leading to attacks, which in turn will lead to reprisals, and so on. The Americans could forcibly move the Confederates and Canadians around, but where would they go? They can't all be kicked out to the Sandwich Islands. It would only create more of a mess. 

Now, on to the case about the Americans being unable to keep control of the Confederacy, Canada, and the rest. I think the American occupation will fail for two reasons: (1) it is very costly and (2) it forces the Americans to be hypocrites. First, the cost. The American economy in TL-191 is not the same as our own. It is much weaker, by virtue of being more militaristic and having been heavily damaged during the Second Great War. The Americans are unlikely to get much from the Confederate half, which has been destroyed almost entirely, and while the Americans will likely loot the former CSA, that will only build up resentment to American occupation. There is no Marshall Plan to help rebuild the United States. This will all have to happen on its own, while the Americans maintain a massive army to keep the Confederates (and Canadians) down. Since the Americans are looking for full integration, they cannot withdraw and set up a puppet regime, like the Soviets did in Eastern Europe IOTL. They will have to maintain this massive army. Also consider the costs of a cold war with Japan or Germany (in this case, both). The costs would be tremendous. 

Second, while the TL-191 Americans are more militaristic than our own, the occupation would eventually become a political impossibility. The Americans present themselves as the defenders of freedom and liberty, and yet they have massive portions of the continent under military occupation for years, if not decades? Berlin and Tokyo will have a lot of fun pointing this out. Not only that, but the American people themselves would see this as hypocrisy from the government. The line that the Confederates were behind the Population Reduction would only work for so long, especially when generations who were in diapers when Featherston was killed begin to come of age. The Southerners themselves would take up the rallying cry of the Canadians: give us the Constitution, or leave. On the other hand, there would be enough people in the American political establishment who do not want their power threatened by new, voting states, and there would be people (particularly blacks) who do not want the Confederates to have a vote because they do not trust them. Thus, the Americans are forced into a limbo, where they cannot take decisive action one way or another. 

In all honesty, I think the Confederacy would eventually be spun off as an independent state, and as would Canada. These would be closely-watched by the Americans, but after the Remembrance generations die off, the younger generations would ask just why they are putting up with such a costly occupation. But what if the Americans did pursue integration, come hell or high water? That's what this scenario is about. That, and parallelism. 

RANT OVER

This scenario explores an approach which is more in line with Turtledove's parallelism. In this case, the Americans go down the route of the Soviet Union, although its fall is more violent and resembles Yugoslavia, kinda sorta. Early opposition to the American occupation would be met with barrels, leading to suppression of the press regarding the occupation. Death tolls, costs, etc., are all censored, and the official line is that the Confederates and Canadians want to be Americans. Gradually, nobody believes this. Reforms are made in the 1960s, but are rescinded in the 1970s after a series of demonstrations that become violent. In the meanwhile, the Americans begin a program of promoting settlement in the occupied territories, which only increases resentment and attacks. Independence movements rise up, mostly non-violent, but are suppressed. All the while, the Americans are fighting a cold war, first against Japan, and then against Germany over ideological differences and the fact that the Americans are promoting independence movements in Africa. It all comes to a head in the 1980s, when a series of reforms are rudely interrupted by another market crash, which destroys faith in the federal government. The federal government announces an abrupt end to the occupation of the South, Remembrance hardliners momentarily succeed in a coup in Philadelphia, eventually states are seceding, and the United States falls almost overnight. What replaces it is the Federal States of America, a revived Confederacy and Canada (under German protection), and some small statelets. The 1990s are filled with poverty and ethnic warfare, as Canadians, Southerners, and Americans slaughter each other. Only German intervention and protection keep the war from escalating further, although the wartime Confederate president is deposed and is now in trial for war crimes. 

Germany is the big winner of the Shadow War. After hearing of the Population Reduction, the Germans and other Europeans experience a bit of an awakening as to the evils of racism, and instead take the belief that it is their duty to aid Africa. While efforts to integrate the African colonies into Germany proper ultimately failed, the Germans did create a dominion-like system which has been successful in improving the standards of living in Africa. Modern day Germany is the superpower of the world, its reach extending to all seven continents. This has led to some rather unfortunate mistakes in South America, and the current economic crisis is putting a lot of strain on Berlin. The Kaiser is a figurehead, and has been since the 1950s, but he is an important figurehead. After all, he is essential to the German narrative that unfettered democracy will only lead to failure, a narrative only strengthened by the fall of the United States. The Italians have kept their colonial system, but have granted autonomy on a more local level. The Libyans did have a referendum on independence in 2014, but the Leave vote failed. The Austro-Hungarians have also decentralized their government, adopting a "United States of Austria" model, even if they have maintained the Habsburg throne. The defeated Entente powers, France and Britain, are actually doing rather well for themselves. Britain rebuilt itself with the aid of Germany, and is now one of Germany's closest allies. It is the tech capital of the world, and while its economy isn't as strong as it was in the 1980s, it is still one of the richest countries on Earth. France, after three defeats in a row, stopped trying and decided to reconcile with the Germans. The fact that the Germans were surprisingly generous in rebuilding France is a plus. Like Britain, France has become a global economic power, surpassing even the  Italians and Austrians, but unlike the British are very pacifistic and very ashamed of their past. Even the very thought of a French monarchy is forever tainted by the Actionist regime.

Japan is the second power in the world, but it is a rising one, and Berlin does seem to fear the Eastern Dragon again. The Japanese reformed their economy and their colonial empire during the 1980s, allowing for more foreign investment and local autonomy. This prevented their entire empire from collapsing like the American one did, and now the Japanese economy is one of the fastest-growing in the world. Unfortunately, this has resulted in some renewed hostility with the Germans, particularly as the Imperial Japanese Navy flexes its muscles. It also has trouble in the region, particularly with China. Rapid development in India has been fueled mostly by Japanese investors and companies, which have increased living standards in India, albeit placing much of the country's natural resources under Japanese control.

The Independent Bloc was formed in response to the ongoing trilateral struggle of the Shadow War, as nations that did not want to be involved. However, after the fall of the United States, it has become a participant in the new geopolitics. Made up of once-weak powers, the Independents now have some of the most vibrant economies in the world on their side. China, once a weak power and practically a Japanese puppet, has recently asserted its independence and is the third fastest-growing economy in the world. With more tech companies from Europe flooding to China because of its cheap labor, the Chinese are starting to become a challenge to the Japanese. The Ottoman Empire had a rough middle of the 20th century, but once they secured the Arabian oil fields, the Ottoman Empire has become one of the richest countries in the world, to the point that it is often accused of even bribing German politicians. Russia is another growing economy, albeit one that is politically unstable. The country is divided between the Nationalists and the Socialists, with the last Socialist government being thrown out by the Nationalists after a major corruption scandal. The military even attempted a coup, as they often do to "preserve the republic." The current administration is still trying to clamp down on parts of the Russian military, particularly on the frontiers. The Empire of Brazil is a strange place, a Catholic theocracy established in the late 1970s after the fall of the pro-German Brazilian Republic. Brazil is not as great a power as the other Independents, but it is the South American power, and is essential to the war against the Revolutionary People's Army.

The Federal States under Walter Peterson may not be the superpower that the United States was, but it is causing problems for the Germans. Peterson is a divisive figure abroad, appreciated by some for his Roosevelt-esque machismo, criticized by others as a tyrant who persecutes minorities. Within the FSA, he is largely popular for bringing the FSA out of the chaos of the 1990s and making it a force to be reckoned with. The FSA's government is practically the Walter Peterson Fan Club, so any dissenters are liable to disappear. The most recent actions the FSA has taken have been aggressive and seem to indicate internal instability in the FSA. The invasion of Cuba and the intervention in the war against the Revolutionary People's Army seem to show that Peterson is adamant in asserting the FSA as a great power, or that he may be trying to distract the American people from economic hardship arising from the recent fall in gas prices. Whatever the case, Peterson's government is also making overtures to the Independents and even the Japanese, perhaps heralding the creation of an anti-German bloc and the beginning of a second Shadow War.