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The Not-So-Splendid Little War

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Another older idea, part of my effort to make a scenario where a historical war turns out in favor of the loser. We've already seen most of the wars the United States has been involved with, but here's one I haven't seen much of: a Spanish "victory" in the Spanish-American War. I'm leaving the details of the war intentionally vague, because I understand that Spanish victory is very implausible.  

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The Cuban War for Independence, and the eventual American intervention, was supposed to be a quick victory for the ascendant United States. However, that was not to be. A series of defeats and debacles, more products of Spanish luck than Spanish competence, saw nearly a dozen American ships joining the Maine at the bottom of the Caribbean Sea. The defeat of the Rough Riders, including the death of its commander, Theodore Roosevelt, and the yellow fever outbreak turned the already-divided American public against the war. Yes, the Americans succeeded in occupying Manila, but constant harassment from both Spanish and Filipino troops (the latter convinced that the Americans would merely be a new master) kept the Americans from securing the victory. 

And then, as the Spanish gradually realized that defeat would be inevitable if something did not change, Madrid received its greatest stroke of luck so far: the intervention of the German Empire. The Kaiser, eager to expand his colonial empire and seeking a counterbalance to France, cut a deal with the Spanish government: he would mediate a victory, in Spain's favor, and in exchange he would purchase the Spanish East Indies at a bargain. The Americans, now fearing German intervention, negotiated for an end to hostilities, which nonetheless saw Cuban independence as an American quasi-protectorate. The growth of Germany's colonial empire and the formation of an alliance with Spain concerned the British, and led to heightened tensions between Berlin and London, and the strengthening of Britain's alliance with France. After the stalemate in the Russo-Japanese War, the Russians grew concerned that they could not fight Germany alone, and so gradually increased their ties to the French. The tangled web of alliances that would eventually lead to the Great War were finally put in place. 

In 1911, the Balkans were the starting point of the Great War, as predicted by many European statesmen. When isolated Serbia began a war against Bulgaria over the spoils of the defeated Ottoman Empire (shattering the Balkan League in the process), the Russians were brought in on the side of the Serbians. The Ottomans stayed out of the fight, but soon Greece and Romania joined Russia and Serbia in order to make gains at Bulgaria's expense. The Austrians eventually joined the fighting on behalf of Bulgaria - as an excuse to "punish" Serbia for supporting Slavic nationalists within Austria's borders - which brought Germany into war against Russia and France. The British declared war on Germany as soon as they declared war on France. A war of maneuver began in the West, quickly replaced with trench warfare, while in the East, the great armies of Europe's greatest continental powers traded vast swaths of land week by week. 

Italy and Spain would stay out of the Great War until 1912, when they both joined the German-led Central Powers. The Americans supported the Entente, but the defeat in the Spanish-American War taught the American public to refuse any intervention in a European war. At war on multiple fronts, the French Army was stretched to breaking point. An entire generation of young men would be lost in the battlefields. The Spanish and Italians fared poorly against the British and French, but the grueling advances through hostile territory took a toll on the Entente an drew men away from the Germans. A renewed German offensive in 1916 broke the back of the French Army at the Marne, and saw Paris fall to the Germans, as it did in 1871. The French government was forced, yet again, to surrender to Germany. 

The French government did not last long after this - a botched coup by disaffected officers was met with mass demonstrations from disillusioned soldiers, which French socialists and communists latched on to. Mere months after the armistice, and France was thrown into civil war, prompting limited German and British intervention. However, the Germans focused most of their efforts in defeating Russia, which sued for peace in 1917, followed shortly by an armistice with the United Kingdom. The civil war in France would rage on until 1920, when the French communists succeeded in purging their internal enemies, forcing the already-exhausted Germans and British to the negotiation table, and forcing the French government to flee across the Mediterranean. The French colonial empire was divided up between the British, Germans and Italians.

In the decades since, Europe has remained under German control. The later madness of Kaiser Wilhelm II led to considerable curtailing of the monarchy's power. The ruling Socialist Party has gained yet another majority. in the Reichstag; their second after the Red Scare of the post-war empire, where the Socialists were forced to pledge total loyalty to the German Empire, and to purge anyone who supported the second French Revolution. Germany's rule in the rest of Europe has become softer, but it is still an iron fist in a velvet glove. Austria is finally starting to centralize properly, although the Hungarians are still causing problems. Spain's political climate is still turbulent, particularly as the Nationalists dominate politics after their victory over the communist rebels in the Spanish Civil War.

To the east, the Russian colossus is regaining lost power. After a period of violent repression, the ruling conservatives have decided that the best way to preserve their power is through gradual liberalization. However, this has gone hand-in-hand with military reconstruction, which is leading to concerns from the Germans. However, the Russians insist it is for the defense of the motherland from the increasingly belligerent Japanese.

The British are slowly losing their imperial power, much to the concern of the Foreign Office. The loss of India was humiliating enough for the empire, but they may lose even more. The colonial revolts are beginning to take their toll on the overstretched British military, which must also defend itself against Germany. Britain has been trying to stay away from colonial affairs since the Great War, and live in splendid isolation (albeit under constant fear of Germany), but a weakened Britain may fall into German orbit. The Conservatives are staunchly opposed to this, while the Liberals are more in favor of European integration.

In the East, China continues on its rise. After the fall of the Qing Dynasty and the establishment of a republic under Sun Yat-sen, it seemed as though the new republic would fall to an internal coup. However, democracy ultimately prevailed, and China became a major emulator of the Western democracies of the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany. Over the decades, China has become the dominant power in the East, even drawing in the newly-independent Bharat. However, they are challenged by Imperial Japan, which is starting to stagnate economically and is becoming desperate not to become a Chinese vassal. Sabre-rattling has become more frequent among both sides, and the next great war will likely start in the Pacific. 

The United States is starting to emerge from its isolation. A major British ally, particularly after the Great War, the Americans are concerned about German dominance. While the American economy is a challenger to the German economy, Americans are nonetheless concerned that Germany would eventually overrun Europe and overtake them, bringing the entire world effectively under their rule. This has led to increased American interest in creating a formal anti-German alliance. 

In Western Europe, the French Conseil Republic remains isolated from Europe, and the world. Watched closely by both Germany and Britain, the French are still heavily militarized, and while they have sworn off the idea of world revolution, they are still viewed by their neighbors with skepticism. The Red Terror may have ended, but political repression under President Maurice Thorez remains among the worst in the world. Many historic buildings, particularly churches, have been demolished by the communists, and the millions that have died under communist rule since the end of the French civil war.
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adamnesico's avatar

Oh!

I can give you a more or less realistic PoD for this.


For any reason, maybe the king having more decision power in the war, the first modern submarine (spanish invention, was boicotted in OTL by politicians who had economic ties to USA) is used in the war, and sinks the 12 ships you mention.

With naval superiority Spain is able of win the war.