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Alright, this has been in the works (in one form or another) since 2012, but I haven't been able to make it work until recently. Many thanks to Mathuen/Mattystereo, who really made this all possible by giving me all the information that I needed on China to get WWIII going (he provided the PoD, and descriptions for the post-PRC states), and on the post-war world.
Jiang Zemin, a former protegee of the great reformer, Deng Xiaoping, was on the course of taking the reins of the Chinese Communist Party from his mentor. However, he had many disagreements with his mentor, particularly that Jiang believed that China's course of economic and political reform was a poor idea. Deng was aware of this, and planned on criticizing the pace of reform in southern China (Jiang's powerbase), and thus implicitly denounce his former protegee. However, inclement weather delays the Southern Tour, and Jiang, hearing of this, hardens his stances against Deng's policies. Jiang loses Deng's support completely, all but killing his political career, and allowing then-President Yang Shangkun and his brother, General Yang Baibing, to take him down. This "Yang Clique" succeeds in forcing Jiang to retire in 1993, and Yang Shangkun emerges as China's new leader.
Yang continues Deng's reforms; indeed, he continues them at breakneck speed. While his initial hardline stance on political reform sours relations with the West, delaying the handover of Hong Kong and Macau, Yang did introduce reforms which gave more power to the provinces. Yang also opens China's currency to the West, and starts engaging in global market speculation and stocks, causing a major boom. However, he does build up China's military, which gains more autonomy and essentially becomes a "state within a state" before the turn of the millennium. When Yang died in 2000, his successor attempts to smooth over relations with the West. Cuts to military spending to alienate the PLA a little, but at the end of the day, China ascends economically. By 2010, China is the strongest economy in the world. And then everything came crashing down.
When the European and American economies declined, China crashed. Being a major purchaser of Western bonds, which were now largely worthless, China's economy went into a death spiral. Viewing this collapse as a failure of the civilian government, the PLA launched a successful coup, promising to restore Chinese prosperity without relying on the West. China, after all, was #1, and while China's new leaders won't say that there was a Western conspiracy to kill the red dragon, they won't say there wasn't. The regime militarizes further throughout the second half of 2010 and all of 2011, causing a string of diplomatic crises in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, and the United States all mobilize to oppose Chinese aggression. This only convinces Beijing that there is a Western-Japanese conspiracy aligned against them, solidifying their power among the nationalistically-motivated people and further increasing their military spending. When the PLA Navy moved into the Spratley Islands and started manufacturing islands, China's neighbors and the United States mobilized in turn. It seems that all it takes for war now is a nut doing something stupid. That nut happened to be Kim Jong-un.
As China's economy crashed, so did North Korea's. While North Korea's people suffered, as they always did, the North Korean military started to suffer as well. Kim, who was not trusted by the military after the death of his father, tried to rein in complaints from his officers by killing them. This prompted a series of events throughout early 2012 which, thanks to the dearth of records from pre-war North Korea, eventually led to Kim winning and attempting to prove his military legitimacy by provoking the South Koreans. However, Kim overreached, and prompted a response from South Korea in the form of artillery fire across the DMZ. Not wishing to back down, Kim ordered a response in kind, a response which killed foreign tourists at the DMZ. This led to a series of escalation which eventually led to the restarting of the Korean War. As American troops poured into South Korea, Beijing surprised the world by supporting the North...and escalating military action in the South China Sea. This led eventually to shooting between the two sides (it is not entirely clear who started), turning into a war between China and the United States and their allies. WWIII had begun.
The Chinese went on the offensive; the PLA Navy secured the Spratley and Senkaku islands, defeating local American and allied forces. The PLA invaded northern Vietnam, but were stopped by the Vietnamese before they could reach Hanoi. Islands were seized from the Republic of China, but no attempts were made to make an amphibious landing on Taiwan. By early 2013, China was winning the war, but the tide turned when American reinforcements started arriving in Korea, and the Americans launched an invasion of southeast China. While the PLA Navy was sent to the bottom of the ocean by the US Navy, the Americans had a long slog ahead of them. Fighting on a massive continent, against a massive army, a massive ocean away, made American offensive operations exceedingly difficult. By 2014, the offensive along the Yangtze had ground to a halt. Fortunately for the Allies, the Russians joined the war in June of 2014, after the Russo-Chinese border conflicts that had been going on since the beginning of operations in Korea spun out of control into open war. However, the Chinese were initially successful against the Russians. Elsewhere, war began between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan and China considering drafting an official alliance.
WWIII took a toll on the United States. Not only was the struggling economy crashed further by the outbreak of war, Americans began hearing of defeat after defeat along the Yangtze. Opposition to the war grew from the left and the right, which placed the paranoid wartime government on edge. Civil unrest grew, and as American soldiers were rotated out of China, they began to desert en masse to escape being sent back. Military cohesion broke down, and attempts to arrest entire units that have gone AWOL broke out into fighting. These units began to side with the people demanding an end to the war. Militias were formed and grew, and began to seize control of important highway hubs throughout the country. Attempts to arrest them led to further civil unrest, as the people began to see Washington as tyrannical.
Washington was overtaken (without shooting) by right-wing militias, and forced the government to sign a surrender with China. This was regarded as illegitimate, and troops and politicians loyal to the old regime rallied around the country. State governments began to secure their borders, sometimes with the unofficial aid of militias. Both sides began to escalate, and by 2015, open warfare began between the federal government and various factions. America was no longer fighting in WWIII; it was fighting its own civil war.
The American exit from WWIII seemed to be the sign that China would win the war, but America's allies continued the fight. The rest of NATO's members continued fighting against the Chinese, and as the Chinese pushed further into Siberia, more and more of their troops died or surrendered. China's own people began to demand an end to the war, which had brought the country untold suffering. By 2016, mass mutinies along the front in the south allowed NATO forces to advance, while the Russians pushed in from the north. Beijing was soon surrounded by angry civilians, and this time they were armed. Seeing the writing on the wall, the Chinese military government fled to the four corners of the Earth; those hardliners who wanted to launch the missiles were quickly disposed of. The civilian government they left behind signed an unconditional surrender with the Allies in 2017. However, fighting did not stop against rogue PLA units until 2018.
In America, the revolutionary right triumphed, as they gained more of the old United States military. The old federal government was forced to flee to Hawaii. The NATO states refused to recognize the so-called "American Union." However, the NATO member states, already tired from WWIII and occupying China, did not want to start a war in America, particularly as the American Union had control of America's old nuclear arsenal, and stated in no uncertain terms that they were willing to use it.
In the meanwhile, China was divided into many different nations. The autonomy granted by Yang was taken away by the military government, and the popular revolution that took down the Beijing government had an anti-centralist tone. Furthermore, NATO and the Russians supported factionalist movements in an effort to break apart the PRC during the war, and now they wanted to stay apart. And so, China was fractured into several pieces. However, Russo-NATO relations broke apart quickly after the war. Growing conflict in the Middle East, which miraculously avoided WWIII, and the Ukraine, split Moscow and the West. A new cold war emerged from the ashes of WWIII.
As of 2040, this new cold war is still going on, with a third power on the rise. The European Union, strengthened during the post-war years, is now a true federation and a world power. Richer than the old United States, Europe is also further left, with a continent-wide "Health and Security" program. However, its low, aging population is starting to cause problems for the system, and the influx of low-income immigrants from Africa and the Middle East isn't filling those gaps fast enough. Furthermore, Europe has inherited NATO's military commitments, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. In the Far East, they are aided by their greatest allies: Japan and the Chinese Federation. Japan remilitarized during WWIII, and while their population is positively geriatric, they have embraced roboticization much further than the Europeans. The Japanese once again have a massive navy, the second largest in the world. Meanwhile, the Chinese Federation, situated in the traditional heartland of China, is a growing economic power. Although devastated by the war, the Federation has recovered with the aid of European and Japanese assistance, which has made them a reliable ally. However, their military remains small, and Federation citizens remain skeptical of the military.
To the south, things are less rosy. The Free Cities, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Wenzhou, are culturally distinct from China even before the war, are prosperous, but heavily polluted and are consuming the resources of the nations around them. Some of the richest men in the world are in the Free Cities, and dominate local politics with an iron fist. Wenzhou is particularly interesting; called the "Jerusalem of China" even before the war, it is a Christian majority city. Prior to the war, the economy of Wenzhou imploded, and the military government found the Christians of the city to be an easy rallying ground for "mobilization" efforts. Much of the country's Christians were forced into Wenzhou to toil in factories. Naturally, they were supportive of the Allies, and rose up as the PLA suffered defeat after defeat. The Wenzhou Christians then negotiated to turn their city into a free city after the war.
The Republic of China managed to secure Fujian, at massive cost, and the population in Fujian is unsure if they want to be ruled by Taipei. The Republic of Sixian is starting to spin apart. The Han to the north want reunification with the Chinese Federation, while the Xiang and Gan to the south want independence. With nationalist rhetoric coming from all sides, things may turn ugly. They see the prosperity of the Free Cities and wonder if they can do something like that. The Republic of Guangyue is dominated by the Pearl Delta Megacity, which includes Hong Kong and Macau. It resembles the pre-war PRC very closely, in that it is characterized by ruthless capitalism, corrupt government, and hedonism among the upper classes. Some note that this is exactly how people acted before the Crash of 2010, but Guangyue isn't listening - there's money to be made! Portions of the Spratleys have been taken, but not as many as the PRC claimed, and they are not being turned into military bases. Instead, they are used as tourist destinations for the rich and middle class. Hainan Island is so overrun with that the Temple to the Goddess Guanyin, destroyed during WWIII, has not been rebuilt, instead paved over and turned into a multiplex. Guangyue also uses its islands for a personal project, that being insane timeshares, bank schemes, and loan bundling plans.
The Russian Federation found new wind after winning WWIII, eventually becoming federated with portions of the former Soviet Union. Russia's military became venerated after defeating the Chinese invader, and this popularity has allowed military leaders to dominate the civilian government. After the death of Putin, military leaders have been able to strongarm the "revolving door" presidents and prime ministers into doing exactly what they want, which is to promote their considerable business interests in Central Asia and the former PRC, and take a hardline stance against Europe. India, damaged badly in their war with Pakistan, has grown closer to Moscow, and become a powerful economic power in its own right. Filling the vacuum left by China, India has become the manufacturing center of the planet, although income inequality remains a major problem in the country. For the poorest of the poor, none of the wealth pouring in from abroad is reaching them.
And of course, there is the American Union. The theocratic factions won out in the American Union after the Revolution, and for the longest time, America saw itself as the "shining city upon a hill," to separate itself from the "Sodoms across the seas." Christian fundamentalism was the order of the day, and while the government never resorted to killing those that they saw as "sinful," such as non-Christians and homosexuals, they were relegated to second-class citizens and sent to ghettoes. The regime saved its lethal force to political opponents of the regime, which were quickly and quietly disposed of in sweatshops intended to keep America isolated. But now, reformers replace the geriatric old guard, and they want to bring back the era of American supremacy on the world stage. The American giant crawls out of its isolationist stage, beginning to challenge both opposing blocs for influence in the growing third world.
EDIT: Forgot the African Bloc, a left-leaning alliance of African states that want to form their own African "power" apart from Europe and Russia.
---
Jiang Zemin, a former protegee of the great reformer, Deng Xiaoping, was on the course of taking the reins of the Chinese Communist Party from his mentor. However, he had many disagreements with his mentor, particularly that Jiang believed that China's course of economic and political reform was a poor idea. Deng was aware of this, and planned on criticizing the pace of reform in southern China (Jiang's powerbase), and thus implicitly denounce his former protegee. However, inclement weather delays the Southern Tour, and Jiang, hearing of this, hardens his stances against Deng's policies. Jiang loses Deng's support completely, all but killing his political career, and allowing then-President Yang Shangkun and his brother, General Yang Baibing, to take him down. This "Yang Clique" succeeds in forcing Jiang to retire in 1993, and Yang Shangkun emerges as China's new leader.
Yang continues Deng's reforms; indeed, he continues them at breakneck speed. While his initial hardline stance on political reform sours relations with the West, delaying the handover of Hong Kong and Macau, Yang did introduce reforms which gave more power to the provinces. Yang also opens China's currency to the West, and starts engaging in global market speculation and stocks, causing a major boom. However, he does build up China's military, which gains more autonomy and essentially becomes a "state within a state" before the turn of the millennium. When Yang died in 2000, his successor attempts to smooth over relations with the West. Cuts to military spending to alienate the PLA a little, but at the end of the day, China ascends economically. By 2010, China is the strongest economy in the world. And then everything came crashing down.
When the European and American economies declined, China crashed. Being a major purchaser of Western bonds, which were now largely worthless, China's economy went into a death spiral. Viewing this collapse as a failure of the civilian government, the PLA launched a successful coup, promising to restore Chinese prosperity without relying on the West. China, after all, was #1, and while China's new leaders won't say that there was a Western conspiracy to kill the red dragon, they won't say there wasn't. The regime militarizes further throughout the second half of 2010 and all of 2011, causing a string of diplomatic crises in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, and the United States all mobilize to oppose Chinese aggression. This only convinces Beijing that there is a Western-Japanese conspiracy aligned against them, solidifying their power among the nationalistically-motivated people and further increasing their military spending. When the PLA Navy moved into the Spratley Islands and started manufacturing islands, China's neighbors and the United States mobilized in turn. It seems that all it takes for war now is a nut doing something stupid. That nut happened to be Kim Jong-un.
As China's economy crashed, so did North Korea's. While North Korea's people suffered, as they always did, the North Korean military started to suffer as well. Kim, who was not trusted by the military after the death of his father, tried to rein in complaints from his officers by killing them. This prompted a series of events throughout early 2012 which, thanks to the dearth of records from pre-war North Korea, eventually led to Kim winning and attempting to prove his military legitimacy by provoking the South Koreans. However, Kim overreached, and prompted a response from South Korea in the form of artillery fire across the DMZ. Not wishing to back down, Kim ordered a response in kind, a response which killed foreign tourists at the DMZ. This led to a series of escalation which eventually led to the restarting of the Korean War. As American troops poured into South Korea, Beijing surprised the world by supporting the North...and escalating military action in the South China Sea. This led eventually to shooting between the two sides (it is not entirely clear who started), turning into a war between China and the United States and their allies. WWIII had begun.
The Chinese went on the offensive; the PLA Navy secured the Spratley and Senkaku islands, defeating local American and allied forces. The PLA invaded northern Vietnam, but were stopped by the Vietnamese before they could reach Hanoi. Islands were seized from the Republic of China, but no attempts were made to make an amphibious landing on Taiwan. By early 2013, China was winning the war, but the tide turned when American reinforcements started arriving in Korea, and the Americans launched an invasion of southeast China. While the PLA Navy was sent to the bottom of the ocean by the US Navy, the Americans had a long slog ahead of them. Fighting on a massive continent, against a massive army, a massive ocean away, made American offensive operations exceedingly difficult. By 2014, the offensive along the Yangtze had ground to a halt. Fortunately for the Allies, the Russians joined the war in June of 2014, after the Russo-Chinese border conflicts that had been going on since the beginning of operations in Korea spun out of control into open war. However, the Chinese were initially successful against the Russians. Elsewhere, war began between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan and China considering drafting an official alliance.
WWIII took a toll on the United States. Not only was the struggling economy crashed further by the outbreak of war, Americans began hearing of defeat after defeat along the Yangtze. Opposition to the war grew from the left and the right, which placed the paranoid wartime government on edge. Civil unrest grew, and as American soldiers were rotated out of China, they began to desert en masse to escape being sent back. Military cohesion broke down, and attempts to arrest entire units that have gone AWOL broke out into fighting. These units began to side with the people demanding an end to the war. Militias were formed and grew, and began to seize control of important highway hubs throughout the country. Attempts to arrest them led to further civil unrest, as the people began to see Washington as tyrannical.
Washington was overtaken (without shooting) by right-wing militias, and forced the government to sign a surrender with China. This was regarded as illegitimate, and troops and politicians loyal to the old regime rallied around the country. State governments began to secure their borders, sometimes with the unofficial aid of militias. Both sides began to escalate, and by 2015, open warfare began between the federal government and various factions. America was no longer fighting in WWIII; it was fighting its own civil war.
The American exit from WWIII seemed to be the sign that China would win the war, but America's allies continued the fight. The rest of NATO's members continued fighting against the Chinese, and as the Chinese pushed further into Siberia, more and more of their troops died or surrendered. China's own people began to demand an end to the war, which had brought the country untold suffering. By 2016, mass mutinies along the front in the south allowed NATO forces to advance, while the Russians pushed in from the north. Beijing was soon surrounded by angry civilians, and this time they were armed. Seeing the writing on the wall, the Chinese military government fled to the four corners of the Earth; those hardliners who wanted to launch the missiles were quickly disposed of. The civilian government they left behind signed an unconditional surrender with the Allies in 2017. However, fighting did not stop against rogue PLA units until 2018.
In America, the revolutionary right triumphed, as they gained more of the old United States military. The old federal government was forced to flee to Hawaii. The NATO states refused to recognize the so-called "American Union." However, the NATO member states, already tired from WWIII and occupying China, did not want to start a war in America, particularly as the American Union had control of America's old nuclear arsenal, and stated in no uncertain terms that they were willing to use it.
In the meanwhile, China was divided into many different nations. The autonomy granted by Yang was taken away by the military government, and the popular revolution that took down the Beijing government had an anti-centralist tone. Furthermore, NATO and the Russians supported factionalist movements in an effort to break apart the PRC during the war, and now they wanted to stay apart. And so, China was fractured into several pieces. However, Russo-NATO relations broke apart quickly after the war. Growing conflict in the Middle East, which miraculously avoided WWIII, and the Ukraine, split Moscow and the West. A new cold war emerged from the ashes of WWIII.
As of 2040, this new cold war is still going on, with a third power on the rise. The European Union, strengthened during the post-war years, is now a true federation and a world power. Richer than the old United States, Europe is also further left, with a continent-wide "Health and Security" program. However, its low, aging population is starting to cause problems for the system, and the influx of low-income immigrants from Africa and the Middle East isn't filling those gaps fast enough. Furthermore, Europe has inherited NATO's military commitments, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. In the Far East, they are aided by their greatest allies: Japan and the Chinese Federation. Japan remilitarized during WWIII, and while their population is positively geriatric, they have embraced roboticization much further than the Europeans. The Japanese once again have a massive navy, the second largest in the world. Meanwhile, the Chinese Federation, situated in the traditional heartland of China, is a growing economic power. Although devastated by the war, the Federation has recovered with the aid of European and Japanese assistance, which has made them a reliable ally. However, their military remains small, and Federation citizens remain skeptical of the military.
To the south, things are less rosy. The Free Cities, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Wenzhou, are culturally distinct from China even before the war, are prosperous, but heavily polluted and are consuming the resources of the nations around them. Some of the richest men in the world are in the Free Cities, and dominate local politics with an iron fist. Wenzhou is particularly interesting; called the "Jerusalem of China" even before the war, it is a Christian majority city. Prior to the war, the economy of Wenzhou imploded, and the military government found the Christians of the city to be an easy rallying ground for "mobilization" efforts. Much of the country's Christians were forced into Wenzhou to toil in factories. Naturally, they were supportive of the Allies, and rose up as the PLA suffered defeat after defeat. The Wenzhou Christians then negotiated to turn their city into a free city after the war.
The Republic of China managed to secure Fujian, at massive cost, and the population in Fujian is unsure if they want to be ruled by Taipei. The Republic of Sixian is starting to spin apart. The Han to the north want reunification with the Chinese Federation, while the Xiang and Gan to the south want independence. With nationalist rhetoric coming from all sides, things may turn ugly. They see the prosperity of the Free Cities and wonder if they can do something like that. The Republic of Guangyue is dominated by the Pearl Delta Megacity, which includes Hong Kong and Macau. It resembles the pre-war PRC very closely, in that it is characterized by ruthless capitalism, corrupt government, and hedonism among the upper classes. Some note that this is exactly how people acted before the Crash of 2010, but Guangyue isn't listening - there's money to be made! Portions of the Spratleys have been taken, but not as many as the PRC claimed, and they are not being turned into military bases. Instead, they are used as tourist destinations for the rich and middle class. Hainan Island is so overrun with that the Temple to the Goddess Guanyin, destroyed during WWIII, has not been rebuilt, instead paved over and turned into a multiplex. Guangyue also uses its islands for a personal project, that being insane timeshares, bank schemes, and loan bundling plans.
The Russian Federation found new wind after winning WWIII, eventually becoming federated with portions of the former Soviet Union. Russia's military became venerated after defeating the Chinese invader, and this popularity has allowed military leaders to dominate the civilian government. After the death of Putin, military leaders have been able to strongarm the "revolving door" presidents and prime ministers into doing exactly what they want, which is to promote their considerable business interests in Central Asia and the former PRC, and take a hardline stance against Europe. India, damaged badly in their war with Pakistan, has grown closer to Moscow, and become a powerful economic power in its own right. Filling the vacuum left by China, India has become the manufacturing center of the planet, although income inequality remains a major problem in the country. For the poorest of the poor, none of the wealth pouring in from abroad is reaching them.
And of course, there is the American Union. The theocratic factions won out in the American Union after the Revolution, and for the longest time, America saw itself as the "shining city upon a hill," to separate itself from the "Sodoms across the seas." Christian fundamentalism was the order of the day, and while the government never resorted to killing those that they saw as "sinful," such as non-Christians and homosexuals, they were relegated to second-class citizens and sent to ghettoes. The regime saved its lethal force to political opponents of the regime, which were quickly and quietly disposed of in sweatshops intended to keep America isolated. But now, reformers replace the geriatric old guard, and they want to bring back the era of American supremacy on the world stage. The American giant crawls out of its isolationist stage, beginning to challenge both opposing blocs for influence in the growing third world.
EDIT: Forgot the African Bloc, a left-leaning alliance of African states that want to form their own African "power" apart from Europe and Russia.
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Hui Republic doesn't like Russia. When you consider that their Russian name (Хуэй) is one letter away from one of the most well-known Russian profanity words, this becomes hilarious.